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SEWAA Forecasts of East African Rainfall

The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) difference between several models and the IMERG climatology. Blue means the model has a lower (better) CRPS. Red means IMERG climatology has a lower (better) CRPS.

CRPS is a proper scoring rule that measures the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts. A lower CRPS indicates better forecast performance. The comparison against IMERG climatology shows where and by how much each model improves upon the baseline.

CRPS comparison between models and IMERG climatology
Additional CRPS comparison between models and IMERG climatology