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SEWAA Forecasts of East African Rainfall

Categories of reliability calculated for Ensemble Logistic Regression (ELR) fine-tuning of IFS and cGAN to predict probabilities of exceedances across different rainfall thresholds (in mm/day) and lead times (in days).

Categories of reliability are calculated using test years 2021, 2023 and 2024 following the methodology detailed in Weisheimer and Palmer (2014).

ℹ️ Blank spaces indicate where no values were computed.

GHA Category of Reliability Plot