User Guide - SEWAA

1

Landing Page

When you open the application, you'll see the homepage with an overview of the SEWAA project, key highlights, and quick links to all tools. Click "Explore Forecasts" to jump straight to the forecast viewer, or scroll down to access other resources.

The navigation bar at the top is available on every page for quick access.

localhost:8000

Home Forecasts ELR Evaluation

Explore Forecasts

Homepage overview

2

Viewing Forecasts

The forecast viewer lets you explore rainfall predictions across East Africa. Use the controls at the top to configure your view:

Model: Choose between 6h or 24h accumulation
Region: Select a specific country or all of East Africa
Date & Time: Pick the forecast initialization
Plot Type: Switch between probability maps and rainfall values

Click anywhere on the map to see the local rainfall distribution at that point.

localhost:8000/showForecasts.html

East Africa

Forecast viewer with map controls

3

Interacting with the Map

Once a forecast is loaded, click on any location on the map to see the detailed rainfall probability distribution for that grid point. A histogram will appear showing the likelihood of different rainfall amounts.

Use ← → ↑ ↓ arrow keys to nudge the selection by 0.1°
Adjust the rainfall threshold slider
Toggle between probability levels

The histogram updates in real time as you move the cursor across the map.

localhost:8000/showForecasts.html

Click on map to view rainfall histogram

4

Ensemble Logistic Regression

The ELR page provides county/sub-county level exceedance probabilities for selected countries (Kenya, Rwanda, Ethiopia). Select a country and date to view the probability that rainfall will exceed climatological thresholds in each administrative region.

ELR forecasts are only available for 24h accumulation initialized at 00:00 UTC.

localhost:8000/ensemble_logistic_regression.html

Regional exceedances

ELR exceedance probability map

5

Evaluation Tools

The evaluation page provides tools to assess forecast quality:

Reliability diagrams: Check how well forecast probabilities match observed frequencies
Cost-Loss ratios: Evaluate economic value of forecasts for different decision thresholds
CRPS comparison: Compare skill scores between forecast models

These tools help forecasters and decision-makers understand when and where the forecasts are most reliable.

localhost:8000/categoriesOfReliability.html

Reliability and evaluation charts

6

Documentation & API

For technical details, installation instructions, and API usage, visit the Documentation page. The system also provides a REST API for programmatic forecast generation.

API docs available at /docs (Swagger UI)
Generate forecasts via /gen-forecast
Health check at /app-status

Use the interactive Swagger UI to test API endpoints directly from your browser.

localhost:8000/docs

API Endpoints

GET /app-status

GET /gen-forecast

GET /documentation

Swagger API documentation